Double In Stocks

A Commentary by Lawrence Kudlow

Republished with permission of Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_lawrence_kudlow/lessons_of_the_summer_swoon

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The economy is suffering from something like a summer swoon. In the words of business columnist Jimmy Pethokoukis, the recovery summer has gone bust. We all know this from the sloppy statistics coming in for jobs, retail sales and, most recently, manufacturing. But market-based indicators are telling the same story.

Let’s start with the Treasury bond market. Yields have fallen to 2.6 percent today from 4.1 percent last April. Decomposing this Treasury rally shows that real yields have dropped 79 basis points, which is a signal of lower economic expectations.

Meanwhile, inflation break-even TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) have fallen 64 basis points, showing that price expectations also have dropped. The consumer price index has only risen 1 percent over the past year. And long-term inflation fears have fallen all the way to 1.7 percent. It’s not deflation. It’s disinflation.

The corporate-bond market shows a similar decline of economic-growth and profits expectations. Credit-risk spreads are widening. The spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and risk-free Treasuries has widened by 62 basis points, while higher-yielding junk-bond spreads have increased by 138 basis points.

Now, all these bond-market indicators don’t tell us a whole lot about the future. But they are corroborating the summer slump in the present. Lower inflation is a good thing, but lower growth is not.

And here’s another hitch in the story. Using the break-even TIPS, the Federal Reserve’s zero target rate is really minus 1.7 percent, which is the same sort of negative real interest rate we had in the early and mid-2000s.

This is undoubtedly why Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is worried about a new boom-bust cycle.

Hoenig calls the Fed’s latest decision to maintain the zero-interest-rate target a “dangerous gamble.” Those are strong words of criticism leveled at Ben Bernanke and the other Fed bigwigs. Hoenig says the financial emergency is over and predicts a modest economic recovery that requires small increases in the Fed’s target rate — still accommodative, but slightly less so.

Hoeing also echoes the fears of Stanford economist and former Treasury official John Taylor, who argues that the Fed is keeping its target rate too low for too long, just as it did between 2002 and 2005.

Are we doomed to repeat the boom-bust cycle? Very few people agree with Hoenig and Taylor. But one market that does is gold. While bond rates have been declining this summer, gold has jumped $100, and it is hovering near its all-time nominal high. That’s food for thought.

And let me repeat my own mantra: The Fed can produce new money, but it cannot produce new jobs. Fiscal policy — and its threat of overtaxing, over-regulating and overspending — is what’s ailing the economy. And that threat is reverberating through stock and bond markets. (The stock market, by the way, is still about 11 percent less than its late-April peak.)

So the long-run message of the gold rally may be this: The Fed may print too much money, but taxes and regulations may hold back the production of goods and services. And if too much money chasing too few goods is inflationary, then lower taxes and regulations to encourage more goods would promote stronger prosperity and domestic price stability.

Free market and supply-side father Robert Mundell argued for lower tax rates and stable money. Is anyone listening?

COPYRIGHT 2010 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

A Commentary By Debra J. Saunders

Republished with permission of Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_debra_j_saunders/arnold_and_jerry_take_a_legal_holiday

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

When 52 percent of California voters passed Proposition 8 in November 2008, Attorney General Jerry Brown said he would defend the measure during the inevitable appeals. Then, as is his fashion, Brown changed his mind. Ditto Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who twice vetoed same-sex marriage bills passed by the Legislature in deference to California voters who passed an earlier same-sex marriage statute in 2000.

But after Proposition 8 passed, both refused to defend the measure.
This month, after U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional, both Brown and Schwarzenegger urged Walker to lift a stay on his ruling — the will of the voters be damned. They didn’t even want to wait for the appeals process to play out.

If Walker has his way, there may not be an appeal. Last week, the judge wrote that the proponents who represented the measure in his court may not have legal standing to appeal. That could mean that if Brown or Schwarzenegger do not intervene, no one will be in a position to challenge Walker’s decision, which the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals stayed late Monday.

Who will represent Proposition 8? Walker wrote, “(P)roponents may have little choice but to attempt to convince either the governor or the attorney general to file an appeal to ensure appellate jurisdiction.”

The conservative website www.flashreport.org is working to push the governor to defend the measure. “You took an oath when you became governor to uphold the Constitution of this state, and that includes the duty to see that the law is faithfully executed, including the constitutional right of the people of this state to amend their Constitution by initiative,” explained constitutional law expert John C. Eastman.

The heat, however, really should be on Brown, who now is running for governor. As AG, it’s Brown’s job to represent the people in court.
As former state attorney general and now Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, put it, “I defended laws that I voted against. That was my obligation. You do your best job. You try to find the best arguments that you can, irrespective of the subject matter.”

If you don’t want to do that, then don’t run for the office.

Kevin Spillane, spokesman for Republican attorney general nominee Steve Cooley, said his candidate believes, “Unless something is blatantly unconstitutional, it is the responsibility of the attorney general to uphold the will of the people … through the initiative process and the legislative process. The personal feelings, philosophy or the agenda of the occupant of the office shouldn’t be imposed.” (Democratic AG nominee Kamala Harris agrees with Brown.)

Sterling Clifford, Brown’s campaign spokesman, told me that Brown decided not to defend the measure because “The attorney general’s job is to make sure that California stays within the confines of the U.S. Constitution.”

And: “To say that state resources should be used defending a law that no one thinks is constitutional, I don’t think holds up.”

Problem: The California Supreme Court upheld Proposition 8 by a 6-1 vote — which tells you there’s a lot of room for debate. At least, Brown could have hired outside lawyers to represent the voters if he found defending Proposition 8 so discomforting.

As it is, I don’t know why Brown is running for governor. He doesn’t seem to relish his responsibilities as the state’s top lawman. Methinks what Brown really wants to be is a federal judge.

COPYRIGHT 2010 CREATORS.COM
Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

Time to Call It Quits!

It was just one season ago, future Hall of Famer Brett Farve was seriously considering extending his football career with the Minnesota Vikings. Farve, 40 years old playing well beyond the life expectancy of an NFL quarterback, had one of the most productive seasons since his 2 trips to the Super Bowl with the Green Bay Packers. But after looking at the season he had with the Vikings, can you say it was all Brett Farve?

Brett had a supporting cast that really made him look like an MVP all over again. But what can you say, football is a team sport. No one man can steal the show, not like Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson anyway.

But there comes a time in every athlete’s life when he or she comes to that fork in the road and has to decide to continue playing or to call it a career end and go out in a blaze of glory. Jordan tried it with the Wizards and needless to say, the greatest player in the NBA, second only to Magic Johnson did not finish in a blaze of glory. Johnson tried it as well with the Lakers with the same results. So Brett decides to come back yet again, wise choice, or his pride is doing all the thinking for him. Only time will tell if it was the right choice.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

Reported By: Soha CRWE Newswire Mideast correspondent

The head of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan General David Petraeus has said that Osama bin Laden is `far buried` in the remote mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan but capturing the iconic figure remains a key task.

In a television interview he said `I don’t think anyone knows where Osama bin Laden is`. `The fact that it took him four weeks to get a congratulatory message out or a message of condolence…indicates literally how far buried he is probably in the very, very most remote and mountainous region`.

The General said that despite having difficulty in locating him, Osama remains an iconic figure and I think capturing or killing (him) is still a very, very important task for all of those who are engaged in counter-terrorism around the world`.

While talking about the prospect of eventual reconciliation with the Taliban he said `It doesn’t mean that Mullah Omar is about to stroll down main street in Kabul anytime soon and raise his hand and swear an oath on the Constitution of Afghanistan`.

But he said there was every possibility, I think, that there can be low - and- mid-level reintegration and indeed some fracturing of the senior leadership that could be really defined as reconciliation`.

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.

Talk About A ‘Hat Trick!’

As a sports reporter, you can say, when interviewing a team, there’s an unwritten rule, “THOU SHALT NOT WEAR A RIVAL TEAMS APPAREL!” In all my years I have never heard of such a ridiculous term, but according to the supporters of the University of Arkansas, if you are caught wearing a rival teams gear, your are to be stoned or burned at the stake! REALLY?! FOR REAL?!

As for The Hog Sports radio personality Renee Gork was what you can call a “Sacrificial Lamb” in the world of sports journalism. Renee Gork was terminated from her recent position because she wore a Florida Gators hat to the press conference for the Razorbacks.

Even listening to the interview with Coach Bobby Petrino, Petrino was very condescending answering Gork’s questions.

But when word got back to her boss, he immediately terminated her. Now is that wrongful termination or what!

Now having been an athlete at the college and professional level, I can somewhat understand the feeling one may have for their rivals, but you have to look beyond that and remain professional! Having been a coach in the professional level, I had to endure interviews with a local reporter wearing someone else’s gear. Should I have been rude and obnoxious to the reporter?

Now on the flip side of the coin, as a sports reporter, you have to remain cognoscente of your surroundings. If you are in a area that has die hard love for a team, you should respect that. A good example is for all those Raider fans! When you’re in Oakland, behind the goal post in the “Black Hole,” you’re not allowed to wear anything other than Raiders gear. Sort of an unwritten rule! There was one incident where a San Diego Chargers fan was stabbed, extreme yes, but there are those who, believe it or not, are willing to kill for their team.

Does it make things right? NO! A person should be able to wear whatever they want regardless of their affiliation or team name, color, ect…..
Gork made a minor mistake in wearing the Florida hat, it should not be grounds for her dismissal! With the job market the way it is, it seems like there was a hidden agenda to terminate the reporter. This is just entirely to small of an issue to take someone’s livelihood away. They couldn’t even give her a warning, instead like an notorious personality (Donald Trump) simply “YOU’RE FIRED!”

Disclaimer:
The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company mentioned or referred to in the article.